The exchange rate between the Euro (EUR) and the Turkish Lira (TRY) has seen fluctuations, currently standing
at 1 EUR = 39.48 TRY as of March 8, 2025. Over the past year, the Lira has depreciated against the Euro, reflecting economic
trends and monetary policies in Turkey.
Key factors influencing the exchange rate include monetary policies by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT), high inflation rates,
and economic growth driven by household spending. The CBRT has been implementing policies to encourage the use of the Turkish
Lira and stabilize inflation, which reached 61.98% in November 2023.
Forecasts predict a gradual increase in the EUR/TRY exchange rate, reaching 42.94 TRY in seven months, signaling further
depreciation of the Lira. These fluctuations impact trade and investment, making Turkish exports more competitive while
increasing the cost of European imports.
In summary, while the Euro is expected to strengthen against the Turkish Lira, Turkey’s ongoing efforts to stabilize its
currency and economy will play a key role in shaping future trends.
Understanding the Euro to Turkish Lira Exchange Rate
The exchange rate between the Euro (EUR) and the Turkish Lira (TRY) is a crucial indicator of economic relations between Europe and Turkey. It influences trade, investment, and tourism activities. As of March 8, 2025, the exchange rate halt at approximately 1 EUR = 39.48 TRY.
Recent Trends in EUR/TRY Exchange Rate
Over the past year, the EUR/TRY exchange rate has experienced notable fluctuations. A year ago, 1 Euro was equivalent to 34.92 Turkish Lira, indicating an increase of 4.56 Lira to the recent rate. In the last seven days leading up to March 8, 2025, the exchange rate reached a high of 39.49 TRY and a low of 38.00 TRY, with an average rate of 38.95 TRY.
Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate
Several factors contribute to the fluctuations in the EUR/TRY exchange rate:
Monetary Policies: The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has been implementing policies aimed at reducing foreign
currency deposits and promoting the use of the Turkish Lira. CBRT Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan emphasized that the transition to
the Turkish Lira is progressing in line with targets, and confidence in the disinflation path has increased.
Inflation Rates: Turkey’s consumer price index (CPI) rose to 61.98% in November 2023, slightly up from 61.36% in October.
However, core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy costs, proved signs of easing, with a monthly increase of 1.9%
in November compared to higher rates in previous months.
Economic Growth: Turkey’s economy expanded by 5.9% in the third quarter of 2023, driven by household spending. This
growth has contributed to a positive outlook for the Turkish Lira.
Future Outlook for EUR/TRY
Forecasts suggest a gradual appreciation of the Euro against the Turkish Lira in the coming months:
One-Month Forecast: The EUR/TRY exchange rate is expected to rise to 38.4057, a 0.61% increase from the current rate.
Four-Month warrning: A further increase to 38.9519 is anticipated, marking a 2.04% rise.
Seven-Month Forecast: The exchange rate is projected to reach 42.94, reflecting a 12.49% increase.
Impact on Trade and Investment
Fluctuations in the EUR/TRY exchange rate have significant implications:
Imports and Exports: A stronger Euro makes European goods more expensive for Turkish consumers, potentially reducing imports
from Europe. Conversely, Turkish exports become more affordable for European buyers, potentially boosting Turkey’s export
sector.
Foreign Investment: Currency stability is a key factor for foreign investors. Efforts by the CBRT to promote the Turkish
Lira and control inflation are aimed at creating a more predictable investment environment.
Conclusion
The EUR/TRY exchange rate is influenced by a complex interplay of monetary policies, inflation rates, and economic
growth. Recent trends indicate a strengthening Euro against the Turkish Lira, with forecasts predicting a continued gradual
appreciation.
These developments have deep effects on trade dynamics and investment decisions between Europe and Turkey.
Ongoing efforts by Turkish authorities to stabilize the currency and control inflation are crucial in shaping the future
trajectory of the exchange rate.